BRUSSELS: In 2014, more than half a million Ukrainians took to the streets of Kyiv, rejecting closer ties with Russia and calling for a European future.
The uprising led to the ousting of then pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and shaped Ukraine’s current pro-Western political position.
A decade later, Ukraine’s revolution remains unfinished.
The country is waiting to hear whether European Union leaders are ready to open discussions on its membership bid for the bloc.
Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic and European Integration Olha Stefanishyna said the decision by EU leaders will be existential for her country.
“This will mean a lot for Ukraine, because this would be a direct message which will definitely have its effect on the front line. And depending on the decision, it will either be a strong message to Ukrainian armed forces, or a strong message to Russian armed forces,” she said.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted Ukraine’s application to join the bloc just three days after Russian forces began their invasion in February last year, charting a clear course towards a future in Europe.
On Thursday (Dec 14), the EU’s 27 heads of state will meet at the European Council in Brussels in a so-called showdown summit to discuss opening accession negotiations with Ukraine – a process which would put the country firmly on a path to membership.
HUNGARY THREATENS TO VETO TALKS
All member states are in favour, except for one – Hungary.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly said his country will veto the talks, claiming Kyiv is too corrupt to join the EU.
In addition, Ukraine’s vast agricultural industry could jeopardise the bloc’s cherished common agricultural policy, he believes.
Mr Orban is also blocking more than US$50 billion in new EU aid for the war-battered nation.
Several European leaders have attempted to negotiate with him but none have broken the deadlock.
Money though, might just do the trick.
The European Commission is expected to unfreeze nearly half of the US$24 billion it held back from Hungary a year ago over concerns about democratic backsliding and rule of law issues.
Mr Orban’s team has hinted that this money, and perhaps even more of the funds freed, might convince Hungary to lift its veto.
LONG ROAD TO ACCESSION
However, even if Hungary agrees to open talks, the process takes years, and Ukraine will have to make deep reforms to prepare for EU membership.
“They have to start opening and closing negotiating chapters on many different topics, whether it’s related to the rule of law, agriculture, good governance of minorities,” said Ms Amanda Paul, a senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre.
“This is a very lengthy and difficult process. Ukraine will have to align its laws 100 per cent with those of the EU.”
Even for countries already closely aligned with the bloc, such as Sweden and Finland, the process took them two years.
Nations less in lock-step take much longer. Portugal, for example, took almost seven years to become an EU member while Turkiye’s accession talks have remained stalled for nearly two decades.
FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES
The talks have far-reaching consequences that will affect the frontline, the urban populations and Ukraine’s future, said observers.
Many Ukrainian refugees who fled from the war feel their country can only be safe in the EU.
“Joining the EU means security. EU support for Ukraine means that we will be able to restore the security within our borders, and restore our economic development for the future,” said one refugee.
On the economic front, being a member of the bloc will boost the nation’s trade and attract foreign investments, observers said.
“Certainly, EU membership will strengthen Ukraine’s economic position by granting it access to its common market, which will help in post-war reconstruction. Ukraine very much needs this to counter what has been a decade-long decline in its trading relationship with Russia,” said Dr Sonia Mycak, a research fellow at the ANU Centre for European Studies.
Repeated opinion polls have also shown that a majority of Ukrainians want to join the EU.
“On a civic level – aside from a political, military or economic level – for the civilian population of Ukraine, this is a really important progression,” Dr Mycak told CNA938’s Asia First.
“Ukrainians see themselves as Europeans with a collective European identity. The vast majority of Ukrainians do not see themselves as part of the Russian imperial world. They want to see their country formally structurally join the EU.”
Related:
Commentary: Why is Ukraine so keen to join the European Union?
Zelenskyy tells Europe: Russia will attack others if Ukraine loses
