BANGKOK: Countries begin negotiations in Dubai on Thursday (Nov 30) to spur greater climate action by the end of this decade, with the Israel-Hamas war likely to cast a shadow on talks.
The conflict has deepened distrust and tension at a time when global cooperation on climate change has never been more urgent, analysts said ahead of the United Nations-led 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28).
Scientists have said global warming should be capped at well below 2 degrees Celsius to avoid its deadliest impacts. But according to the UN’s Emissions Gap Report released last week (Nov 20), current national pledges would lead to temperatures rising by up to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
COP28 will be “a fundamental test of whether nations can firewall climate diplomacy from immediate crises,” said Mr Ulrich Eberle, director of the Climate, Environment and Conflict project at International Crisis Group, a non-profit committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
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HOW MIGHT THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR AFFECT COP28?
Top of COP28’s agenda will be the first Global Stocktake, a review of collective action taken since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. It is a form of inventory taking to get countries to scale up their climate ambitions.
The UN has described the stocktake as a “moment to take a long, hard look at the state of our planet and chart a better course for the future”. It wants countries to both live up to their promises and accelerate their ambitions for the decades to come.
Yet for many countries, meeting their pledged climate action is contingent on international sources of funding. Facilitating that requires closer cooperation and enhanced trust.
The hostilities in Gaza have added complication and distraction at a critical junction, fraying ties between wary partners.
“Climate change is a worldwide concern, necessitating global collaboration. The Gaza fighting has introduced additional tension that risks weakening the capacity to reach consensus,” Mr Eberle said.
While the war in Gaza is taking place more than 2,000km from the United Arab Emirates, the contagion from the conflict has spread region-wide, heightening political tensions, testing diplomatic ties and throwing uncertainty into energy markets.
“The trust deficit between the US and the Global South is particularly sharp now. This has the potential to undermine North-South relations on a variety of issues, and may taint conversations at COP,” he said.The ability to hold constructive conversations on contentious issues such as the details around establishing a loss and damage fund, reducing global dependence on fossil fuels and reducing methane emissions could be made more difficult.
The war in Gaza could draw away finance needed to fight climate change and support developing nations, and even keep important participants away from the forum. US president Joe Biden will reportedly not attend COP28, with The New York Times citing White House aides who suggested the war had consumed him in recent weeks.The Gaza conflict is also happening alongside the Russia-Ukraine war, which escalated in February last year with Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour and has seen countries such as the US, Germany and the United Kingdom committing billions of dollars in military and other aid to Ukraine.
“Climate action and other pressing concerns deemed less urgent may continue to take a backseat as attention is redirected to more immediate priorities,” added Mr Eberle.
CAN THE UAE AS HOST KEEP THE SHIP STEADY?
The UAE holds the COP presidency for a year, a period in which it can influence the nature and outcomes of climate negotiations.
The COP president is Mr Sultan Al-Jaber, who remains in his role as the head of the country’s national oil company, ADNOC, prompting criticism from green groups and climate activists.
While conceding that it needs to move towards cleaner energy sources, the UAE still plans to significantly hike its oil and gas production this decade.The UAE has also delicately positioned itself as a political intermediary in recent years, making strides in building a working relationship with Israel. It is the first Gulf nation to normalise ties with Israel, breaking a longstanding taboo of working with Jerusalem, in spite of deep disagreements about the nature of Palestinian statehood.Despite the war and widespread outrage among the wider Arab population, the UAE has pledged to maintain its diplomatic relationship with Israel.“The UAE faces a balancing act trying to bring nations together in Dubai while simultaneously acting as the Palestinians’ advocate in the (UN) Security Council. The Emiratis, the US and other powers will likely want to avoid the war affecting climate diplomacy,” said Mr Eberle.
WILL THIS AFFECT THE DEBATE ABOUT RENEWABLE ENERGY?
These fears of market impacts due to the conflict could manifest at COP28 in divergent ways.
It could provide even more momentum to the push for the widespread installation and adoption of clean energy sources. Both the US and China have pledged a major ramp-up of renewable energy, set to be a negotiating point in Dubai.
“In the near term, everyone always aims toward securing their fuel supplies, but taking a longer-term perspective, the recent turbulence reminds us – yet again – of the fragility of the fossil fuel supply chain,” said Mr Putra.
But it could also embolden oil-producing nations to remain steadfast about maintaining the flow of reliable fuel sources, which could influence the debate about their “phase out” versus their “phase down”.“If key actors perceive that fossil fuels grant them greater energy security, it’s probable that the transition to alternative energy will receive less support, particularly in the short to medium term,” Mr Eberle said.
COULD TAKING URGENT CLIMATE ACTION INFLUENCE FUTURE CONFLICT IN THE REGION?
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has found clear connections between the effects of climate change and the drivers of future conflict.
Extreme climate events will result in an increase in the pre-conditions for conflict and violence to take place. Droughts, for example, can lead to social pressures due to food shortages and the breakdown in trust of governments.Climate change is already having severe impacts on the Middle East region. Extreme temperatures over 50 degrees Celsius are placing severe stress on populations, while water scarcity and drought are pressuring food systems.With less rain, countries in the region already have to heavily rely on desalination, which has been found to have adverse effects on the Persian Gulf environment.“While it may be hard, it is crucial that politicians and diplomats do not let the crisis in the Middle East distract them from the longer-term risks of climate change, including the links between climate change and conflict,” Mr Eberle said.
“But focusing on (the connection between) global warming and conflict will be hard when a hot war is fresh in participants’ minds.”
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