SINGAPORE: Whether United States and China leaders can keep their eye on the ball in terms of managing their competitive relationship will prove consequential in Asia.
But regional stability and continued prosperity cannot rely solely on the anticipation that the two superpowers will find a peaceful way to co-exist, as was raised in the November summit between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The meeting took place at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in San Francisco, almost a year after the two leaders met during the G20 leaders’ gathering in Bali.
There was some light at the end of the tunnel for those hoping for US-China ties to stabilise – if not improve – with greater economic and political dialogue and an agreement to restore military-to-military communication.
Further engagement can reduce the risks of active and robust military activity around Taiwan and East and South China Seas, as well as incidents like the alleged Chinese spy balloon floating across the US, from unintentionally escalating out of control.
But what happens if the US is looking distracted?
DISTRACTIONS IN MIDDLE EAST AND UKRAINE
In Southeast Asia, the worry is about whether US remains committed and has bandwidth for constructive participation in regional affairs, while attending to two bloody wars and a 2024 presidential election.
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza that broke out since October shows little sign of abating, as does Russia’s war in Ukraine which will hit the two-year mark in February 2024.
Widening conflict in the Middle East can both draw US attention away from East Asia while putting further strain on US resources already stretched by the war in Ukraine. Already, negotiations in Congress about additional funding to Ukraine have stalled.
Despite Washington’s claims that it still has the capacity to act decisively in East Asia, material limitations may spell a diminished US willingness to manage relations and tensions and less ability to respond to crises should they erupt.
Such concerns are especially pronounced given the absence of broadly recognised – even if grudgingly so – alternative arrangements and relationships to help manage regional order. Beijing has a preference for militarised and paramilitary options to address disputes, and has yet to demonstrate sufficient relative self-restraint.
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Continued Chinese pressure on the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan may be an effort to test US commitment to its friends, allies and the regional order following the resumption of military-to-military contact.
The ability of Washington and Beijing to manage such potentially risky encounters at sea and in the air is likely to be a real gauge of the effect and robustness of renewed US-China exchanges.
COMPLICATED RELATIONSHIPS
Hand-wringing about US commitment, particularly in Southeast Asia, reveals a paradox about perspectives toward Washington. On one hand, regional political elites are eager to criticise the United States for being at times overbearing and potentially provocative.
Singapore’s government pointed to alleged political interference by the United States in the late 1980s as an example for its Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act, which will come into force fully at the end of this month. Malaysia has pointed to an overreliance on the US dollar and International Monetary Fund as reasons to set up an Asian Monetary Fund with a substantial Chinese role.
On the other, they desire to continue enjoying the advantages of persistent active US economic, security and political engagement, preferably accepted by a China that seeks evolutionary change within the system.
Ambivalence toward the US role in Southeast Asia is perhaps reflective of limited confidence in regional leadership in managing contemporary challenges.