SINGAPORE: The face-to-face dialogue between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday (Nov 15) in San Francisco was seen by both sides as a chance to reset the tone of the world’s most important bilateral relationship and reduce the chances of tensions escalating into more serious conflict.
While the meeting is high-stakes, the expectations around outcomes were deliberately set low. It concluded with both sides claiming progress and mutual respect, and a clear sense that they have to mutually co-exist.
Mr Biden said they had to manage their competition responsibly and noted they needed to find areas of mutual interest. Neither country could turn its back on the other, said Mr Xi, adding: “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed”.
In that sense, the summit achieved its goal of keeping channels of communication open, which is a key factor in ensuring global stability.
SOME CONCRETE PROGRESS AMID LOW EXPECTATIONS
Relations between the two countries have deteriorated to their most tense level in 40 years but had improved somewhat amid recent visits by senior officials.
Ahead of the leaders’ encounter at the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, the White House cautioned against assuming that it would produce a long list of outcomes or deliverables. Neither was a joint statement on the table, as would be often produced at such summits.
Still, both sides had goals beyond lowering tensions.
For the US, Mr Biden in particular had signalled the desire to resume military-to-military communications. These were suspended by China, as a sign of displeasure at then US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Other topics, such as cooperation on areas like climate change and the narcotic fentanyl, were suggested areas of progress.
On these fronts, Mr Biden seemed to have got what he wanted, with the resumption of military communications and China’s agreement to curb production of fentanyl. Sceptics though might point out that former US president Donald Trump had also secured a similar promise from Mr Xi in 2018.
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MORE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES FAR FROM SETTLED
For China, the meeting came at a time of significant economic slowdown. Progress would look like US messaging that it was not pursuing a strategy of “decoupling” or an all-out economic war. It was also looking for reassurance from the US that it does not support Taiwanese independence.
The bigger issues of contention, such as Taiwan (amid Mr Biden’s reiteration of the US’ unchanged commitment to a one-China policy), trade restrictions or China’s role in global conflicts, remain far from settled.
No amount of dialogue between the two nations’ leaders is likely to change these.
Looming in the background of the summit is the 2024 US presidential election, with Mr Biden trailing in the polls against the expected Trump candidacy. With more than 80 per cent of Americans expressing a negative view of China, any concessions around trade would be politically disastrous, even when a lifting of restrictions could achieve something the US public wants – lower inflation.
POSSIBLY THE LAST BIDEN-XI MEETING
For the Chinese, a change in the US administration offers a complicated picture. A better working relationship with Mr Biden might not count for much if this could be their last meeting.
A second Trump presidency portends a more intensified trade war and restrictions on China. At the same time, in contrast to most Republican presidential candidates, Trump has not taken a clear position of support towards Taiwan.
A decrease in US support for Ukraine, as Trump has indicated he favours, could remove one of the more uncomfortable elements in Xi’s “no-limits” partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For the rest of the world, the summit offers some hope that a return to dialogue between the superpowers may help smoothen the bumpy future of US-China relations.
Trisha Craig is Vice President (Engagement) and Senior Lecturer of Social Sciences (Global Affairs) at Yale-NUS College. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not represent the views and opinions of Yale-NUS College or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.
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