SEOUL: On Tuesday night (Nov 21), 10.42 pm local time, North Korea launched what’s been called a spy satellite from its Sohae facility on the west coast.
North Korean media showed photographs of its leader Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch, surrounded by smiling, clapping scientists and engineers.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency said Pyongyang would be launching several more satellites to better watch over South Korea and other areas of interest, to help North Korea prepare for “dangerous” military moves by its “enemies”.
Was the launch a success?
North Korea’s Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite was believed to have entered into orbit about 12 minutes after takeoff.
The next day, South Korea’s military acknowledged that the launch was a success, but said it needed more time to determine if the satellite was actually working.
Experts have questioned the Malligyong-1’s ability to do its job – including to take high-resolution images.
South Korea’s intelligence agency has assessed that the satellite was unlikely to be functioning, after it examined debris from rockets used in two failed launches by North Korea in May and August.
“Given the fact that it usually takes about three years for satellite development, the current claims do not guarantee the North’s satellite capability,” a South Korean lawmaker from the ruling party told reporters.
“Unless Pyongyang makes public those Guam base photos it mentioned.”
He was referring to claims by North Korea that the Malligyong-1 had taken pictures of US bases in Guam and transmitted them to Pyongyang.
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How did its neighbours and other countries respond?
South Korea, together with allies Japan and the United States, have condemned North Korea over the launch, calling it a clear violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution.
The UN maintains sanctions on North Korea due to its nuclear missile developments.
Japan also briefly issued an emergency warning, asking residents of Okinawa to take shelter as the Malligyong-1 flew over the prefecture and towards the Pacific Ocean.
There are further concerns over Russia’s role.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he would support North Korea’s satellite programme, and South Korea says it has proof of Pyongyang and Moscow exchanging data and analyses over designs for the Chollima-1 rocket used to carry the satellite into orbit.
Analyst Hong Min told Reuters that some level of technical consultation could have taken place either just before or after the North Korea-Russia summit in September.
“This consultation may not have been a full-depth involvement in the design but likely targeted specific challenging aspects within North Korea’s planned design,” said the director of the North Korean research division at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
There are concerns that this cooperation won’t stop here and that Russia will continue offering North Korea technological assistance, while Moscow receives weapons from Pyongyang for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
What does it tell us about North Korea’s plans?
North Korea has made it clear that the Malligyong-1 was necessary to deal with what it sees as threats from South Korea and the US.
The plan is for a fleet of satellites to monitor movements in South Korean and US bases around the region. There are now about 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea.
Experts say North Korean leader Kim will use the satellite launches to shore up support ahead of an important meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party, where accomplishments will be reviewed and policies for the new year discussed.
Pyongyang has also test-fired about 100 ballistic missiles in the past year, in an effort to expand its nuclear arsenal – which Kim could use to demand greater concessions from the US, according to analysts.
The US has said that if North Korea attacks the South, it would have to deal with not just Seoul but Washington too.
And South Korea and the US have discussed upgrading their so-called extended deterrence strategy, or the use of American military assets – including nuclear forces – to protect allies against attacks.
The US currently has its nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier deployed in waters off South Korea’s southern port city Busan, in a show of force amid heightened tensions on the peninsula.
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How will this affect regional and global dynamics?
In protest over the Malligyong-1’s launch, South Korea has partially suspended a 2018 military agreement with the North aimed at defusing tensions along their shared border.
The next day, Pyongyang said it would no longer abide by the deal, and would deploy “more powerful” troops and “new-type” military equipment to the region.
“The possibility of an accidental armed conflict along the Military Demarcation Line (the border) will increase,” Professor Yang Moo-jin from the Seoul-based University of North Korean Studies told local media.
“And the possibility of accidental clashes escalating into a war has also increased.”
As with the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, any breakout of war on the Korean peninsula wouldn’t be confined to just between the two main parties.
It will be of critical interest to the US, particularly with North Korea’s status as a nuclear power state and not to mention close ties to Russia as well as China.
Researchers Victor Cha and Ellen Kim from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that Beijing and Moscow would not support any actions by the UN Security Council to punish North Korea.
In particular, Russia’s supposed role in assisting North Korea with satellite and possibly other advanced military tech should concern the rest of the world, the analysts wrote, saying it “would be a major blow to the international nonproliferation regime and rules-based international order”.