KEMAMAN, Terengganu: The resounding victory by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia’s (PAS) candidate Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar in the Kemaman by-election in Terengganu could springboard the party’s ambitions at the federal level as analysts say it now has a suitable leader it can put to the fore for national leadership.
At the same time, the landslide margin attained by Dr Ahmad Samsuri is an indication that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s continuous efforts, through policy and campaigning to appeal to the Malay Muslim voters, have not borne fruit.
Beyond that, analysts also believe that the by-election highlights Barisan Nasional’s (BN) losing grip of the Malay heartland.
Dr Ahmad Samsuri won by a 37,220-vote majority in a straight fight against BN candidate and former army chief Raja Mohamed Affandi in the by-election that was held on Saturday (Dec 2).
The victory was a wider margin attained than when PAS’ candidate Che Alias Hamid won the seat in the 15th General Election (GE15) held a year ago.
Che Alias had clinched the seat then by a 27,179-vote majority against three other candidates but his win was later nullified by a court in Terengganu. The court cited that corruption had taken place with the aim of influencing voters during the campaigning period before GE15.
Bersatu is also hit by political instability, following Muhyiddin’s u-turn the previous week to defend his presidency at the party’s next internal polls, as well as how five of the party’s MPs have stated their support for Mr Anwar. Muhyiddin also continues to face money-laundering charges in court.
Political analyst Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia agreed that now would be an opportune time for PAS to raise its profile within PN.
“The by-election win signals to Bersatu and Tan Sri Muhyiddin that PAS is very strong and dominant in PN,” said Dr Mazlan.
“Now PAS has a leader to lead Perikatan Nasional – Dr Samsuri who has been referred to (by Muhyiddin himself) as a candidate for prime minister in the future,” he added.
However, Dr Wong Chin Huat, political scientist from Sunway University warned that in order for PAS to walk the talk, it must now put forth Dr Ahmad Samsuri by asking for instance that he be given a prominent position in the PN opposition’s portfolio committee, dubbed by local media as the coalition’s shadow cabinet.
“To showcase PAS’ ability to govern a sophisticated economy and a multiethnic society, it is not enough for PAS to say, ‘we have a smart chief minister and he can be a good prime minister’. As states have very limited jurisdiction, a good chief minister material still needs to first prove that he is a good ministerial material (at federal level),” said Dr Wong.
Analysts said that this has come at the expense of Mr Anwar’s reform agenda, which includes pushing for policies which are needs-based rather than ethnic-based.
Dr Mazlan said that Mr Anwar’s attempts to gain ground among the rural Malay votes has not yielded anything, and that he should focus on economic policies to win over the middle ground.
“The pro Malay and Islam rhetoric used by PAS is very effective in the Malay heartlands. Anwar must rethink new strategies to regain Malay support,” he added.
Related:
Analysis: Malaysia PM Anwar’s rating dips after first year, but his focus must stay on longer-term reforms
Commentary: Anwar consolidates power, but has he delivered in his first year as Malaysia PM?
Meanwhile, Dr Wong said that Mr Anwar can attempt to imitate PAS but he would remain to be seen as “fake” by the hardliner, conservative voters.
“In a divided society, most voters want more ‘authentic products’ and shun ‘moderates’ that try to imitate their radical rivals,” said Dr Wong.
“If he tries to leapfrog PAS, he would be pushing his liberal and ethnic-minority base to stay at home in protest,” he added.
Analysing the Kemaman results, Dr Wong said it is likely that PAS garnered a huge margin of victory because a “sizeable portion of BN and PH supporters” did not go out to vote.
He noted that the voter turnout in Kemaman had dropped by 15 percentage points as compared to last year, and that the proportion of voters who supported the BN candidate dropped from 34 per cent to 20 per cent.
“Since Samsuri’s victory was seen as a foregone conclusion, they might not see the point to turn up at polling booths to save UMNO’s and Anwar’s face,” opined Dr Wong, referring to BN’s main component party the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO).
He added that PH’s main partner in the unity government coalition, UMNO, has also lost its appeal among Malay voters.
Kemaman constituency and the state of Terengganu was previously a BN stronghold but PN now holds all 32 state seats and eight federal seats in the northern east coast state.
“The only way to prevent a PN-led government is the revival of UMNO as a respectable moderate nationalist/conservative party,” said Dr Wong.
He opined that UMNO needs to push through a leadership transition to kickstart the revival.
“They need a leadership change that would get UMNO to seriously reinvent itself as a viable product between PN (its main rival) and PH (its best partner for a coalition government),” added Dr Wong.